Election 2026 for $5m+ property: CGT, land tax, the kingmaker, and why sensitive land won't move
New Zealand votes on Saturday 7 November. In the past week Labour has published the costings behind its capital gains tax, and the latest poll leaves the party with a land tax holding the balance of power. Here is what has changed for $5m+ owners and buyers, and where each party stands on sensitive land. We don't forecast the result.
Key takeaways
Labour's capital gains tax would be 28% on gains from residential and commercial investment property made after 1 July 2027. The family home would be exempt.
The 1News Verian poll of 6 October has both blocs on 58 seats, with Opportunity's 8 seats deciding which forms a government.
Opportunity proposes a 1.75% annual land tax (0.5% on rural land). Christopher Luxon has ruled out working with the party because of it.
No party has proposed easing the sensitive-land rules or the 5ha limit for residential or lifestyle land.
How the rules treat shares in gated estates is still unresolved.
Labour's CGT, now costed
Labour's fiscal plan (4 Oct) sets the tax at 28% on gains from commercial and residential investment property made after 1 July 2027. The family home, farms, KiwiSaver, shares, business assets and inheritances would be exempt. The plan books $2.8 billion from the tax over the forecast period, and Labour says nine out of ten New Zealanders would never pay it.
For prestige owners, the family-home exemption is the key line, but one question is open. Labour's published material does not say whether a home owned by a non-resident investor visa holder, who may spend only part of the year here, would count as a "family home".
The poll: a kingmaker with a land tax
The 1News Verian poll released on 6 October had National on 29%, Labour 28%, Greens 16%, NZ First 10%, ACT 9% and Opportunity 7%. On those numbers, the right bloc (National, NZ First, ACT) and the left bloc (Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori, Te Tai Tokerau) would each hold 58 seats in a 124-seat Parliament, and Opportunity's 8 seats would decide the government.
Luxon has ruled Opportunity out, citing its land value tax: "We want to work with parties that want no new taxes." Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong called that a mistake, and 1News noted the land tax is not one of Opportunity's bottom lines. Told this, 40% of respondents said National should reconsider and 33% said hold firm. The poll (1,001 voters, 1–5 October, ±3.1 points) is a snapshot, not a prediction.
Opportunity's land tax and prestige homes
Opportunity proposes a 1.75% annual tax on land value, falling to 0.5% on rural land, to fund a weekly "citizen's income" (RNZ, 26 Aug). Cotality's Kelvin Davidson told RNZ that estimates suggest land taxes could cut values by 10 to 15%. Westpac's Kelly Eckhold said that "higher-value properties might be more impacted because their land value could be larger". Davidson noted that land makes up most of the value in Auckland's market.
The two taxes work differently. The CGT would be paid when an investment property is sold. The land tax would be charged every year on land value, with deferral offered only to retirees and farmers.
Sensitive land: no party proposing change
The 2025 Overseas Investment Act reforms, in force since 6 March 2026, deliberately left residential and lifestyle land alone. Cabinet's paper promised "no changes to the consent requirements or pathways for investments in residential and lifestyle land, to meet the commitment to retain the foreign buyers ban" (Cabinet paper). The $5m+ house pathway was the only residential carve-out. We have found no current proposal from any party to ease the sensitive-land rules or the 5ha non-urban threshold. Each party's latest published position:
National: Keep the foreign-buyer ban with the investor visa one-home exception. "The ban on foreigners buying residential housing will remain" (Luxon, 1 Sep 2025).
ACT: At its 4 October campaign launch, ACT said overseas investment consents are now "three times faster… from 71 days down to 23" (speech). We found no specific sensitive-land or foreign-buyer pledge.
NZ First: Agreed to the limited exception after Winston Peters said the threshold "is not $2 million" (interest.co.nz). Its only recent OIA idea is easier "quality foreign investment" in a proposed Marsden Point economic zone (RNZ, 24 May).
Labour: Housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty said in March that Labour is "strongly opposed to any idea that overseas investors can buy residential property", with a policy to come "in due course". As at 7 October we could find no overseas-investment policy on Labour's policy page.
Greens: Opposed the $5m exception (interest.co.nz, March 2026).
Opportunity: We found no published foreign-buyer policy.
The unresolved gated-estate issue
LINZ guidance treats each owner of shared common property as owning the whole common block. In a rural gated estate, that can tip a home over the 5ha threshold and make it ineligible. A Queenstown agent said in May that he planned to ask the Government to change this (OneRoof, 23 May). We have found no published response, and no party has announced a fix.
Dates to note
Tue 13 Oct: comments close on IRD's draft guidance on AIP holders and tax residence (PUB00548).
Mon 26 Oct: advance voting opens (Electoral Commission).
Tue 3 Nov: US midterm elections, four days before New Zealand votes.
Sat 7 Nov: election day.
What this means
Vendors: As proposed, the CGT would not apply to gains before 1 July 2027 and exempts the family home. Whether a land tax becomes law depends on coalition talks. Plan for a range of outcomes and take tax advice. If you are weighing a sale, list your property with Valta.
AIP buyers: The $5m+ pathway is current law. On today's policies, the pool of eligible homes is set by the existing sensitive-land rules, so check land category and title boundaries early.
FAQ
Would Labour's capital gains tax apply to my family home?
No. Labour's plan exempts the family home, along with farms, KiwiSaver, shares, business assets and inheritances.
Would an AIP holder's NZ home count as a family home?
Labour hasn't said. Treat it as an open question until detail is published.
How much is Opportunity's land tax?
1.75% of land value a year, or 0.5% on rural land, with deferral for retirees and farmers.
Is any party proposing to relax sensitive-land rules or the 5ha limit?
We have found no such proposal from any party.
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Advisers and partners: Valta AIP Partners.
This article is general information only, not legal, tax or immigration advice.